Editor’s note: From historical experience, whenever US leaders choose open economic policies to the outside world and actively solve industrial upgrading internally, the US economy becomes stronger and society becomes richer. On the contrary, when American leaders regard international trade as a zero-sum game, embracing tariff barriers in a short-sighted manner, the economic contraction and depression are always accompanied by.
History tells people that it is Wilson, Roosevelt and Clinton who vigorously promote free trade that has made the United States become more powerful quickly after the end of World War I, World War II, and the Cold War. If the United States really wants to be “great again” and engage in trade barriers and trade bullying at present, then there is no door to “great again”.
Author: Zhang Guoqing (Expert in International Studies of the American Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
The United States continued to strengthen in the 20th century and became a superpower. One of the important reasons is that it made the right choices at several historic critical moments. For most of the time after World War I, World War II and after the war, the United States insisted on promoting trade liberalization and globalization, which is a typical example.
At the Paris Peace Conference after World War I, then-US President Wilson proposed the famous “Four-Point Plan” to establish a world order plan for peace, national self-determination and just, including the abolition of trade barriers. Wilson himself advocates free trade in practice. After he stepped down, the United States entered a golden age of rapid economic development. On January 10, 1920, the day when the Treaty of Versailles came into effect, the League of Nations was officially established under the auspices of Wilson. Its mission is to encourage governments to resolve international disputes in a peaceful manner. Due to various reasons, the United States ultimately did not join the League of Nations, which made it lose its support for maintaining international peace and stability. However, Wilson played an important role in the development of the League of Nations and the first attempt to globalize trade in the 20th century. He himself won the Nobel Peace Prize for this.
President Roosevelt, who was ordered to turn the tide during the economic crisis, decisively formulated the Reciprocal Trade Agreement Act in 1934 to cooperate with Roosevelt’s new policy. The United States soon recovered its vitality and gradually became a world economic and military giant. Since then, the U.S. president has generally viewed free trade as one of the few win-win policies in a complex diplomatic strategy until Trump comes to power. In 19CinemaIn 39, the U.S. State Department first proposed to establish a new world organization to replace the flawed international alliance, and Roosevelt first used the term “United Nations” to describe this organization. The Charter of the United Nations clearly states that regulated free trade and market openness should be adopted in the fields of international finance and trade. This has a great impact on future generations and has also made free trade the mainstream consciousness and long-term choice of the international community.
The next is Thousand Days President Kennedy. On October 11, 1962, Kennedy finally made and signed the country after nine months of game.The Trade Expansion Law will be passed. This was seen as a major political victory for him personally and also as a boon for free trade. Kennedy’s original intention, as he said, is that if the United States wants to increase exports, it must reduce tariffs on a large scale, so that it can gain an advantage in competition with Europe and the Soviet Union. Ironically, the bill became an important weapon for Trump to launch a trade war half a century later.
In the 1980s, President Reagan praised free trade very much and repeatedly praised the benefits of free trade. During his campaign for president, he proposed the idea of a “North American Common Market”. After entering the White House, he signed the “US-Canada Free Trade Agreement” and promoted the development of free trade between the United States, Canada and Mexico, thus making a good start for the development of global free trade. This move has benefited many parties, and the US economy has quickly emerged from stagflation and staged a miracle of “Reagan Economics”. The United States’ open attitude has enabled the development of US-China relations, providing many opportunities for Chinese companies in the early stages of reform and opening up and Chinese people who have opened their eyes to the world.
Clinton has always emphasized the removal of tariff barriers to achieve free trade. During his administration, he promoted the establishment of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and made a series of progress in promoting trade globalization. In 1993, the US Congress passed the North American Free Trade Agreement and the World Trade Organization was established the following year. These are of global significance and have become key driving forces for the rapid development of the US economy, winning the “golden eight years” for the United States.
Looking back on the past century, we will find that the common characteristics of these US presidents who promote trade globalization: high cognition and high enthusiasm for action. They believe that reducing trade barriers is beneficial to the United States: it is beneficial to American companies investing around the world, which will ultimately make American consumers profit, such as enjoying low-priced TV sets and T-shirts; it is beneficial to US exports to allies, and US products are also easy to find new markets overseas. Their cognition is in line with the trend of the times and represents the mainstream direction of the world. In their respective eras and years later, they have made important contributions to the development of the US economy, benefiting the real economy and the US stock market. During the period between Reagan and Clinton, the Dow Jones Index in the U.S. stock market rose 10 times. During the year when the United States advocates free trade, its international influence and leadership are also strong. From Wilson to Roosevelt, from Reagan to Clinton, the United States has a strong international voice and leadership.
American historians highly praised several presidents who advocated free trade. Roosevelt, Wilson and Reagan were named “Great Presidents”; Kennedy died young, but his approval rating was very high during his tenure; if Clinton had not had the Lewinsky scandal, he would have been close to “Great Presidents”.
As a contrary example, there was only one period in the history of the United States when it promoted trade protectionism and opposed free trade, that is, when the Hoover style of going against the trendIt was a super failure. Although Hoover has passed away for nearly half a century, his name will be mentioned repeatedly whenever there is a financial crisis or signs of trade protectionism.
After Hoover came to power in 1929, the US stock market plummeted and international trade frictions continued. Against this backdrop, the US Congress actually passed the Tariff Act of 1930, imposing unprecedented high tariffs on imported goods. At that time, 1,028 economists wrote to object, but the stubborn Hoover still signed the bill. He believes that the crisis in the United States comes from outside. Faced with the recession, many MPs believe that some action should be taken to protect their own businesses to appease voters and win the 1930 midterm elections. This is a political reason for the passage of the bill, and the selfishness and short-sightedness of politicians are fully demonstrated.
Reply, the effect that Hoover and his politicians expected did not achieve, but instead triggered crazy revenge from the US trading partners, and European countries successively implemented import controls. In this way, the hope of restoring the global economy by expanding trade has been shattered under the strict foreign trade controls of various countries, the US economy has officially entered a cold winter, and the world economic situation has further deteriorated. KomiksHoover’s protectionist approach helped fuel the economic crisis of 1929. Once the Tariff Act of 1930 was passed, the stock market began to fall and continued until 1932. In 1929, global trade volume was US$36 billion, and in 1932 it dropped to US$12 billion. Later economists evaluated the bill as the “maximum contribution” of the US Congress to the Great Depression and a typical economic ignorance. Reagan even called it “the most destructive trade law in history.”
To this day, the bill is still considered the “biggest mistake” made by Hoover during his term. It not only destroyed the international camp that should have kept each other warm in winter, catalyzed the famous economic depression in world history, and in a sense it also “built a stage for World War II”, but also left a root of the disease – as long as there is a problem with the US economy, some people will consciously or unconsciously raise the banner of trade protectionism. What these people should remember most is the profound lesson of trade protectionism that cannot save the economic crisis and the political price Hoover paid for it.
History tells people that it is Wilson, Roosevelt and Clinton who vigorously promote free trade that has made the United States become more powerful quickly after the end of World War I, World War II, and the Cold War. If the United States really wants to be “great again” and engage in trade barriers and trade bullying at present, then there is no door to “great again”.
Now, the United States is at another historic juncture. Judging from historical experience, the US president’s choice of trade liberalization and globalization is always beneficial to others and has received high historical evaluation; on the contrary, if the US president goes against the current, it will not only harm the United States and other countries, but also become a “great president”.
ViErson and Roosevelt brought the United States into the world
One was the “father of the League of Nations” with strong idealism, and the other was the founder of the pragmatic and flexible United Nations. They made the United States break diplomatic isolationism and move towards globalization
Reporter Feng Lu of this magazine
Left: Thomas Woodrow Wilson (1856-1924), the 28th President of the United States. Right: Franklin Delano Roosevelt (1882-1945), the 32nd President of the United States.
In the fall of 1911, Thomas Woodrow Wilson, 55, and Franklin Delano Roosevelt, 29, met for the first time. In Wilson’s study, the two hit it off at first sight, and the topic extends from US legislation to “improving the living conditions of everyone.” Wilson has a good impression of Roosevelt, who is highly consistent with his political views, and believes that this young man from a prominent family will make a big splash. Roosevelt described Wilson as follows: “He has a cold appearance, not lacking enthusiasm, profound knowledge, and modest and calmness. He does not use emotions, but can completely impress people with reason.” Neither of them expected that in the future, they would ascend to the throne of US president, break diplomatic isolation in the world war, and become a benchmark figure in the process of American globalization.
Mankind hopes to pursue peace and prosperity through world organizations for a long time and will not be destroyed. From the international alliance created by Wilson after World War I to the United Nations led by Roosevelt after World War II, efforts to globalize economic and trade liberalization are deeply rooted in it. In the face of the opportunities and challenges brought to the United States by the world war, both presidents redefined the relationship between the United States and the world and embarked on the path of US economic, trade and diplomacy with a global vision.
As soon as I went to the Komiks station, I started to reduce tariffs. “If you put aside the impact of religious beliefs on him, you will not be able to truly know and understand Wilson.” A well-known scholar said this when talking about Wilson.
Wilson is the son of a Virginia pastoral couple famous for their piety, spending her childhood in a serious religious atmosphere. This makes him have a “missionary complex” that strongly promotes his own values throughout his life.
Wilson reads political and theoretical books widely when he was a teenager, treating British politician William Gladstone as his life idol, and imitating his language style to participate in campus debates. Gladstone, who represented the British industrial bourgeoisie, advocated free trade and external expansion, which had a subtle influence on Wilson’s future governance philosophy.
However, Wilson did not start his political career soon, but embarked on the academic path first. His student days lasted until he was 29 years old, and then he went to Princeton University to serve as a professor of law and political economy, during which he published dozens of monographs, including “History of the American People”. It is not difficult to see from his academic works that Wilson advocates that the United States actively participates in world affairs and provides support for enterprises’ external competition.
Wilson’s idealism also began to show signs during this period. “A president, as long as his ability allows, wants to be such a person, in law and morality, can become such a person.” He wrote in a political essay and practiced his statement. American historians believe that Wilson is a great man who led the United States to seek world influence.
In March 1913, Wilson became the only American president in American history to hold the title of Doctor of Philosophy. At that time, the US economy was developing rapidly, and industrial production accounted for 1/3 of the world’s total output, and the demand for overseas markets became increasingly strong. Wilson, who transformed from a scholar to a president, followed the requirements of the times and began to reduce tariffs as soon as he came to power, greatly expanding the U.S. foreign trade and investment fields.
In the context of great economic development, Wilson broke the isolationist policy that the United States has pursued for more than 100 years. “No one cares more about bringing American businesses to every corner of the planet than me. I care about this long before I wanted to be a politician. Year after year I advocated that the United States should show its wisdom, skills, enterprising spirit and influence in every country in the world.” Wilson delivered a passionate speech in Philadelphia in 1914, and received warm applause from Babaylan at any time. A month before his speech, the Austro-Hungarian Crown Prince was assassinated in Sarajevo, and the European-centered international order was disintegrating. Wilson had a premonition of the arrival of the Golden Age and was convinced that America should become the leader of the world.
History gave Wilson an excellent opportunity to lead the expansion. The US economic development speed during the war was astonishing. Wilson described the money earned to the point where it was “swelling the top”. In 1914, the total industrial output value of the United States was approximately US$24.9 billion, and by 1919Cinema grew to US$63.9 billion. During the same period, the number of millionaires in the United States increased by 17,000. Net income for U.S. companies also soared from $3.8 billion in 1912 to $10.5 billion in 1917.
In April 1917, the powers of all walks of life were exhausted in the war, and Wilson waved his hand and announced that the United States would join the war. “It’s not because we want to choose to join, but because the talent of our people and the growth of our strength have become the decisive factor in human history. When you become the decisive factor, no matter whether you want it or not, you can’t stay isolated.”Erson said so. Although he was busy with domestic government affairs at this time, he still insisted that he should look around the world and fuel the glorious wartime economy.
In order to promote the further global business power of the United States, Wilson called on American businessmen to have an international perspective and encouraged American companies to form a joint organization for foreign trade. He also shouted: “Financial leadership will belong to us, industry will belong to us, and trade advantages will belong to us. Other countries in the world expect us to give leadership and guidance. All those who are afraid of competition must stand behind!”
Writing business freedom into the “world blueprint”
In 1919, during the Paris Peace Conference, US President Thomas Woodrow Wilson (first right in front row) and other countries participating in the meeting.
In the winter of 1918, World War I was coming to an end, and Wilson decided to establish a new post-war international order dominated by the United States. He wrote his ideals in the “Fourteen-point principle” known as the “World Peace Program”, and wrote a strong mark in the history of human civilization. The specific contents include open diplomacy, freedom of the high seas, equal opportunities for international trade, reduction of armaments, giving European ethnic minorities the right to self-determination, and establishing international alliances.
In terms of international trade, the “Fourteen-point principle” requires all countries to eliminate all economic barriers as much as possible and establish equal trade conditions. This implies two basic elements of Wilson’s design of the world blueprint: freedom of business and open international portals.
Soon’s idealistic concept spread from America to Europe filled with smoke, catering to the psychology of the European people who were tragically damaged by war. On November 11, 1918, the warring sides verbally agreed with the “Four-point Principles” and the First World War ended. As the guns stopped, Wilson was given the title of “The Messenger of World Peace”.
In the past four years, European countries used cannons and poison gas to kill each other. Europeans, who were deeply suffering from war, saw hope from the blueprint drawn by Wilson: this will be a war to end all wars and a system that ensures long-term peace in the world is about to be established. They see Wilson as a “savior” and even name streets, buildings and children in Wilson’s name. In such a warm atmosphere, Wilson, who had a sense of religious mission, took a ship of “George Washington” to Paris to attend the peace talks, becoming the first American president to visit Europe during his term.
The ship sailed on the Atlantic Ocean for 9 days, and the burly Wilson often stood on the deck and stared into the distance. He had his face tightened habitually, as if he was anxious about the international situation that was wandering like a wave. However, as time progressed, the mist ahead gradually dissipated. He could almost see the Brest HarbourThe flags were welcomed, the sound of salutes and the stormy cheers became clearer and clearer. When Wilson took a car to Paris, the crowd of people who were welcomed were surging, and he couldn’t help but smile, as he always looked serious. The land of Europe has a tragic fate. Wilson waved his hat left and right with a lofty desire to serve all mankind, as if he was paying homage to the world.
As one of the three giants of the Peace Conference in Paris, Wilson participated in the negotiations started on January 18, 1919 with the “Four Points Principle” to restore the international order destroyed by the war. Because the goals of the United States, Britain, France, Japan, Italy and other countries are different, each decision must be achieved through multiple rounds of “unpleasant compromises”. This is later called “a fragile compromise between American idealism and European paranoia.”
The debate between all parties lasted like a marathon for several months. Wilson insisted on first signing a League of Nations covenant according to the last article of the “Four-Point Principle”, and then sat at the conference table of the League of Nations to discuss the interests of various countries. Other leaders of the countries involved in the negotiations believe that Wilson should give up his absurdity and discuss the immediate war reparations, consolidate the actual order, and put aside the mirage-like “lasting peace”.
However, Wilson would rather leave the Paris Peace Conference than compromise. In his view, free trade can ease hostile competition among countries and promote economic prosperity, and the League of Nations is an institution that ensures the smooth implementation of the free trade system through collective security. It can be said that the League of Nations is full of Wilson’s efforts and ideals. His principle is that as long as the League of Nations plans are made part of the Treaty of Versailles, everything else can be compromised. Wilson did not want to pay compensation and territory, but was determined to incorporate the world order into his carefully designed system of international alliances.
After 26 revisions, the League of Nations Covenant was adopted on April 28, 1919, becoming a chapter of the Treaty of Versailles signed on June 28. However, when Wilson, 62, returned to the United States with a covenant of the international alliance that was exchanged for a huge political cost, condemnation and opposition drowned out his hot ideals. Many conservative American congressmen are worried about being forced to participate in military operations or restraining the right to declare war, so they oppose joining the League of Nations; and the public also complain that Wilson should give priority to Americans when dealing with international affairs, rather than just wanting to be the founder of utopia.
Wilson worked hard to plan the League of Nations, but the United States refused to join, so anxious that he made difficult and useless tour speeches everywhere, which was simply a martyrdom pursuit. When he delivered his fortieth speech promoting the League of Nations in Pueblo, Colorado, he finally fainted on the ground with exhaustion. He suffered an extremely severe stroke, which caused his left hemiplegia. But he still couldn’t rest, and all kinds of disastrous news came one by one. When he was seriously ill, it was exactly the same as ginsengThe important juncture of the House of Parliament’s final vote on the Treaty of Versailles. Just two days before the vote, Wilson was still full of confidence: “I would rather be defeated a thousand times than be fussy for unhappy compromises.” But his ideal was dashed, and the United States did not join the League of Nations after all, and the leadership of the organization finally fell into the hands of Britain and France.
On January 10, 1920, the Treaty of Versailles officially came into effect and the League of Nations was established. Wilson soon left the political stage and moved to a simple building in the Washington Embassy District to live a quiet life.
Nevertheless, Wilson was still known as the “father of the League of Nations” and was awarded the 1919 Nobel Peace Prize. During Wilson’s tenure, the United States’ national strength was booming, becoming a world creditor, and New York replaced London as the world’s financial center. Some scholars believe that the alliance of countries once made the United States leaps to the forefront of the times, leaving behind a significant legacy of the wave of globalization for successors. After Wilson, the United States won the title of “world leader” and was full of mission when advocating globalization. These have been deeply imprinted by “Wilson’s idealism”.
After talking more than 30 trade liberalization agreements
In 1933, U.S. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt (left) took a car with Interior Secretary Harold L. Eckles (center), and Agriculture Secretary Henry A. Wallace (right). It was the early stage of Roosevelt’s new policy.
After Wilson, the one who was most closely linked to him was Roosevelt, who entered the White House less than 10 years after his death. Because of the same breaking isolationism and advocating globalization, Roosevelt was seen as a loyal “believers” of Wilson. He deliberately transported Wilson’s table to his home in Hyde Park, New York.
On March 4, 1933, 51-year-old Roosevelt was sworn in as president in Washington, with cold rain. At that time, the Great Depression swept across the United States, and the stock market plummeted, and there were unemployment, bankruptcy and bankruptcy everywhere. Countless depressed and helpless Americans heard Roosevelt’s confident and enthusiastic voice in the cold wind: the only thing we deserve to fear is “fear” itself.
Roosevelt was a flexible realist. Even in the face of many difficulties, he can always maintain a transcendent tranquility behind his happy expression. As soon as he took office, he intensively formulated 15 important policies, including monetary management and commercial allowances, opening an unprecedented legislative period in American history: the United States is already at the bottom, but can climb upward. Some media commented that no president has ever felt so hopeful in such a short time.
In terms of free trade, Roosevelt broke the tariff barriers set by his predecessor Hoover and formulated a tariff reduction policy based on the trade of mutually beneficial countries. In 1934, Roosevelt passed the Reciprocal Trade Agreement Act, authorizing the administration to negotiate with other countries to obtain bilateral tariff concessions.The power of agreement. From 1934 to 1945, the United States completed negotiations on more than 30 bilateral trade liberalization agreements with other countries. “Trade liberalization will stimulate economic growth, and low tariffs will allow countries to return to prosperity” became the mainstream view at the time.
In Roosevelt’s view, the US economic prosperity depends on cooperation with world trade powers. In order to get out of the Great Depression as soon as possible, Roosevelt even tried to negotiate foreign trade with the Soviets, and officially recognized the Soviet Union on November 17, 1933, ending the 16-year history of refusing to recognize the Soviet Union since the October Revolution in Russia; the Soviet Union quickly became a huge market for American export goods.
Effective measures to maintain bank credit, stimulate foreign trade… to gradually upgrade have gradually achieved practical results. Between 1933 and 1935, the U.S. GDP rose from $39.6 billion to $56.8 billion. In 1936, Roosevelt’s first term ended. Faced with a 50% increase in national income, he described with relief: “At this moment, factories and machines are buzzing, the market is booming, banks have strong credit, and vehicles and ships are full of passengers and goods…”
Isolationism can no longer dominate the diplomatic ideas of the United States
By 1938, Roosevelt could no longer concentrate on domestic affairs. As the war was sweeping from the Atlantic and the Pacific, he had to turn his eyes to external dangers and American defense. After all, the domestic economy and the international environment are dependent on each other.
At that time, the stormy waves caused by fascist forces endangered human peace. Many Americans are devoted to dealing with the dangers caused by the Great Depression and immersed in a strong atmosphere of isolationism. Roosevelt once witnessed Wilson being obsessed with political ideas and ignorant of worldly affairs, and eventually ended his political career in an atmosphere of failure; he felt powerless like an audience who watched ancient Greek tragedy. Now, facing a similar situation, Roosevelt decided to learn from his idol’s lessons and lead the United States to an internationalist track in a “silent and silent manner”.
Since 1939, Roosevelt repeatedly persuaded Congress to amend neutrality legislation, which finally made Congress reluctantly agree to abolish the arms embargo clause. Then, he retreated to advance and used his cordial “fireside conversation” to convince the American people that the Lease Act could help the United States avoid being involved in the war. People gradually accepted the idea that the United States could not “maintain itself” and devoted themselves to the torrent of the anti-fascist war. BabaylanPeople choose to believe in Roosevelt, partly due to the upward trend of the economy: the GDP in 1939 was $91 billion, and at the end of World War II it reached $215 billion.
In the summer of 1941, Roosevelt and Churchill held a meeting on warships in the northern Atlantic Ocean to jointly publish the Atlantic Charter, which was run through words such as national self-determination and free trade, outlining the outline of an international peace organization Cinema. According to Roosevelt’s vision, this organization is indispensable and will become a platform for the United States to participate in international affairs and exert its influence for a long time. On New Year’s Day of the following year, under the advocacy of Roosevelt, 26 anti-FrenchBabaylanThe Sith country jointly signed the “United Nations Joint Declaration” at the White House in the United States, and the idea of establishing a “broad and permanent universal security system” after the war was widely accepted. Roosevelt himself was regarded as the “commander-in-chief” of the United Nations.
When the New Year bell rang in 1943, Roosevelt seemed to have seen anti-French The dawn of the Sith League. In the rectangular hall on the second floor of the White House, the theme song of the World War II blockbuster “Casablanca” is played in a loop. Roosevelt held a champagne glass in his hand and suggested that his friends and family cheer for the victory of the United Nations. Like Wilson, Roosevelt believed in the leadership mission of the United States. He said to people around him more than once: “The United States has to come forward to lead and help resolve differences between other countries, and we are able to do this! Because the United States is the only major power that can create peace in the world situation! This is a great responsibility! ”
In the summer of 1944, at the invitation of Roosevelt, the meetings of the United States, the Soviet Union and China, the United Kingdom and China, were successively held in Dumbatton Oak Park near Washington. The meeting suggested that the name of the future international organization is “United Nations”, which stipulates the purposes and principles of the United Nations, as well as the organizations and powers of major institutions such as the General Assembly and the Security Council. On June 26, 1945, the signing ceremony of the United Nations Charter was held in San Francisco. The United States, as the host country, was the last signing. However, it was not Roosevelt who held the signing pen, but his successor Truman. More than two months ago, Roosevelt was in a sudden crisis.
In June 1945, the US delegation attended the UN Charter Meeting, and Arthur Vandenberg signed an agreement. The UN Charter clearly stated that the principles of regulated free trade and market opening should be adopted in the field of international finance and trade.
The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade adopted in 1947 reduced the tariffs on taxable goods in the United States by an average of 21%, further breaking trade barriers. An international free trade system centered on the United States was gradually formed.
Wilson advocated the establishment of the International <a The Cinema Alliance was disbanded in 1946, and its property and Cinema archives were all handed over to the United Nations. Under the new banner, the propositions of free trade and open markets proposed by Wilson's period became a reality. The United States also took the United Nations as a new starting point to gradually reshape the world trade pattern. Although isolationism occasionally rose when the US overseas expansion was setback or domestic problems were prominent, it was no longer possible.Can't dominate the diplomatic ideas of the United States.
As the famous American journalist Johnson wrote in “Biography of Roosevelt”: “He overthrew more precedents than anyone, smashed more ancient structures than anyone, and changed the entire face of the United States more rapidly and fiercely than anyone.” After the victory of World War II, the United States’ comprehensive national strength reached its peak. In the Komiks district of Manhattan, New York, there is a glass curtain wall building, which is the headquarters of the United Nations. It was the “international territory” shared by humans opened up by Roosevelt that established the United States’ influence in the world. To a large extent, it can be said that without Roosevelt’s global vision, there would be no international status of the United States today.
”Economic President” Clinton opened a new door to US-China trade
He believes that opening up trade is in the interests of the United States, and implementing the North American Free Trade Agreement during his term of office, and solving the biggest obstacle to China’s entry into the WTO
This magazine’s special correspondent in the United States Wang Rujun
Who is in charge of the White House? The economy is the key. In every election, the economic policies of US presidential candidates have attracted much attention. In 1992, Bill Clinton pulled the prestigious Bush Sr. with the wonderful economic prospects he portrayed; in 2000, Bush Jr. shouted a loud “tax cut” slogan, narrowly defeating Gore, who was strong; in 2008, Obama held high the banner of “change” and vowed to bring “hope” to the US economy and successfully entered the White House.
On January 20, 2017, billion-dollar real estate developer and talk show star Donald Trump took office as US president, setting off a drama where “political amateurs” dominate the United States. He held high the banner of “America first” and “making America great again”. The American people thought that “Trump is a good deal when doing business, and there are naturally great tricks to govern the country.” But unexpectedly, in less than two years, Trump made a series of tricks, withdrawing from the Paris Agreement on climate change, UNESCO, the United Nations Human Rights Council, the Global Migration Agreement, the Comprehensive Agreement on the Iranian Nuclear Issues, etc., and also launched a trade war with the EU, Japan, Mexico, and China, causing chaos in the world. At home, Trump accused political opponents of being liars, media lying, and his own team kept changing players. Now, the investigation of the “Russia Gate” is becoming more and more profound. Cohen, a lawyer who has served Trump for many years, and Manafort, the former campaign leader, pleaded guilty. In particular, Trump Group’s treasurer Weisselberg also explained the information about Trump’s sexual scandal hush fees when the prosecutor agreed to exempt him from prosecution. American media generally believe that Weiserberg has managed the finances for the Trump Group for decades and is well aware of Trump’s every move in the past. Once Weisselberg reveals it, for Trump, the “Pandora’s Box” will probably really open.
At such a moment, people can’t help but think of former President Clinton. Although he was also plagued by pornographic scandals back then, he was almost impeached for having an affair with female intern Lewinsky, but his political achievements, especially his economic achievements, are undeniable. During his administration, Clinton set a record for the longest economic prosperity in American history, not only turning the huge fiscal deficit into a surplus, but also promoting the rapid development of the “new economy”, allowing the United States to take the lead in the information revolution and the wave of the Internet industry.
”Poor boy” played the economic card and entered the White House
Different to Trump coming to this world with a golden key in his mouth, Clinton is a genuine pauper. He is the posthumous son of a car salesman. His biological father died in a car accident at the age of 28. His mother, Kelly, is a nurse with a bad temper, and his stepfather is an alcoholic and a gambler. Clinton basically lived in the shadow of domestic violence when he was a child, and his wife, Hillary, later said that Kelly “had hurt her son in unimaginable ways.”
Clinton was born a top student, and was received by the former President Kennedy (right) as an outstanding student in his youth.
But Clinton was born a top student, and was received by the outdated president Kennedy as an outstanding student in his youth. The photo of the young Clinton shaking hands with the radiant Kennedy has always been praised. During college, Clinton has always been a winner of various scholarships, from Georgetown University, Oxford University to Yale University, and achieved a gorgeous turn from a poor boy to a young talent. Later, Clinton Cinema devoted himself to politics and became the governor of Arkansas.
Although Clinton was a figure in Arkansas in the 1980s, he was still unknown throughout the United States. In the 1992 presidential election, the environment was favorable to the Republican Party. Reagan was president for 8 years and Bush also worked for 4 years. They destroyed the Soviet Union, pushed down the Berlin Wall, and defeated Saddam… With the reputation of being at its peak, the showdown between Bush and Democratic presidential candidates was called “a war between a giant and a seven dwarf” by the American media at that time, and Clinton was one of the seven dwarfs.
However, Bush, who won praise in international affairs, has weaknesses in the domestic economy. Clinton defeated other Democratic presidential candidates and won the nomination for his party’s presidential candidate. Then, he took the banner of revitalizing the economy and started a “political kill” with Bush Sr.
After 12 years after Reagan and Bush were in charge of the White House, the US economy experienced unprecedented “three highs” and “three lows”. The “three highs” are high debt deficit, high foreign trade deficit, and high unemployment rate. The “three lows” are low per capita GDP growth rate, low manufacturing production, and low economic competitiveness. By 1991, the United States had a negative growth of 1.2%, setting a record for the lowest post-war economic growth rate. Reagan was overstimulating the economy during his administration, leaving Bush with huge national debt and fiscal deficits. Faced with the difficulties, Bush succumbed to Congress pressure in 1990 and agreed to increase taxes.You should know that tax cuts have always been a policy tool for Republican elections and rule. When Bush, the Sr., shouted, “Please look at my mouth, never increase taxes.” But times change. Since 1990, the trend of the US economy has become increasingly serious, companies and individuals have gone bankrupt, and the middle class and working class have become increasingly desperate. The Bush administration cannot propose new prescriptions to improve the economy, and its promises have become shattered, and its credibility has been greatly reduced in the minds of voters.
Although Clinton was a “political short man”, he quickly grasped the key point of Bush Sr. and put forward a loud slogan during the campaign: “Idiot, the problem is the economy.” He played the economic card very well, and his affinity and good storytelling eloquence won the support of the general public.
The Clintons in their youth.
In the end, Clinton, who was full of personal charisma, defeated the political leader Bush, and was sworn to become the 42nd President of the United States on January 20, 1993. The president, who was born in the United States, made a loud vow in his inaugural speech: “Today, we will celebrate the mysterious thing of the revival of the United States. This ceremony was held in the middle of winter, but what we say and the new look we show here today will prompt the arrival of spring as soon as possible.”
Implementing the North American Free Trade Agreement as soon as it took office
The young and strong Clinton not only brought a vibrant new trend to the American politics, but also ambitious to leave his own mark in the process of globalization. “The rise of global markets has weakened governments’ ability to control their economies. The answer to this question is neither laissez-faire nor protectionism, but a third way: to formulate new international rules and institutions to ensure globalization can be carried out simultaneously with higher standards of living, safeguarding labor rights and environmental protection.” He believes that the U.S. leadership “should negotiate specific multilateral agreements to deal with specific environmental threats, rather than limiting trade.”
The establishment of the North American Free Trade Zone reflects this thinking of Clinton. This trade zone first originated from the US-Canada Free Trade Zone in the mid-1980s. In 1992, the leaders of the United States, Canada and Mexico signed the North American Free Trade Agreement and submitted them to their respective legislatures for approval after long-term consultations.
Although the agreement was signed during the Bush era, Clinton’s active promotion was an important reason for the final implementation of the North American Free Trade Zone. Clinton had made his position clear as early as the presidential campaign debate. At that time, Bush Sr. said that free trade can increase employment opportunities for Americans, especially during economic recession. It is necessary to expand exports to revitalize the economy and a free trade agreement. Clinton said: “If we can truly re-educate and train unemployed American workers, then the benefits (FTA) outweigh the disadvantages.” After Clinton came to power, the US Congress was under pressure from labor and environmental organizations, which said the agreement would lead to an increase in the unemployment rate in the United States and hollow out industries. Clinton delivered a speech in Congress, sayingThe benefits of the agreement were negotiated with Mexico and Canada for additional agreements such as labor and environment, which eventually made the agreement approved and officially came into effect on January 1, 1994.
The North American Free Trade Agreement is the first free trade agreement in the world signed by a developing country (Mexico) and two developed countries (the United States and Canada). It has a very important demonstration effect and has greatly promoted the pace of economic globalization. The comprehensive national strength and market maturity of the North American Free Trade Zone member countries are very different, and the economic complementarity is strong. In the first decade after the establishment of the Free Trade Zone, the trade volume between member states grew rapidly, and the trilateral trade volume increased from US$306 billion in 1993 to US$621 billion in 2002. The agreement helps companies restructure their North American supply chains, making industries such as automobile manufacturing in the United States more globally competitive. Developing country Mexico also benefited significantly. From 1993 to 2002, Mexico’s exports to the United States and Canada doubled, and its share in U.S. trade also increased significantly. It can be said that all three countries have made great profits from the North American Free Trade Zone.
It is worth mentioning that the two major changes in the US foreign trade in the era of Reagan and Bush were introduced: one is to shift the focus from “free trade” to “fair trade”, and to practice protectionism in the name of “fair trade”; the other is to shift from multilateralism to bilateralism, and to promote multilateralism through bilateralism. Clinton did not completely deny Reagan and Bush’s policies, but there was a difference. He stressed the need to improve his country’s competitiveness and regard expanding exports as the only way to increase wages for American workers and revitalize the US economy. In order to open up the international market, he did not hesitate to wield the “sanctions” stick, but he also actively implemented the “national export strategy”. In 1993, Clinton identified six key export industries, including semiconductors, computers, communications, environmental protection, consulting software industry and service industries, and effectively promoted the development of US foreign trade by reducing export controls, opening up emerging markets, providing trade financing, and establishing export assistance centers for small and medium-sized enterprises. From 1992 to 1996, the average annual growth rate of US exports was 6.2%, higher than the global average rate of 5%.
”China’s joining the WTO is definitely a win-win situation”
On June 28, 1998, then-US President Clinton, his wife Hillary Clinton and his daughter Chelsea visited the Great Wall in Beijing.
Clinton has promoted the reduction of tariff barriers worldwide. His Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers later said: “The economic benefits brought by the tariff concessions negotiated during the Clinton era are the largest tax cuts in world history.”
The theory of free trade is a product of the period of free competition in Western countries. Economists Adam Smith and David Ricardo believe that free trade is the reason why all civilizations can develop economically. Adam Smith said that increasing trade is the reason for the prosperity of Mediterranean cultural institutions such as Egypt and Greece, and it is also the reason for China’s prosperity. After World War IIUnder the leadership of the West, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade was launched, which explicitly stipulated that tariffs were reduced and non-tariff barriers were eliminated, which promoted the development of world trade to a certain extent. The U.S. Constitution stipulates that no obstacles to commercial activities cannot be placed, and this applies to all states in the United States. Therefore, the United States is the world’s largest free trade entity. But in actual implementation, the US government has always implemented free trade in areas that are beneficial to itself, and trade protection is adopted in areas that are not conducive to itself.
After Clinton came to power, he actively promoted the Uruguay round of negotiations on the Tariff and Trade General Agreement, and finally signed the final agreement in April 1994. The Uruguay Round negotiations have achieved three major results: First, the multilateral system has been strengthened and the dispute resolution mechanism has been strengthened. Second, the conditions for market access for goods and services have been further improved, and the tariff level has been further reduced. The third is to establish the World Trade Organization. The United States initially opposed the establishment of the WTO and finally made concessions. On January 1, 1995, in the middle of Clinton’s administration, the WTO officially began operation. Its basic principle is to achieve the goal of world trade liberalization by implementing principles such as market opening, non-discrimination and fair trade.
Due to historical and political reasons, the People’s Republic of China has failed to successfully become a member of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. In 1986, China applied to return to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, and then began rounds of arduous negotiations. During Clinton’s administration, seeing the development of China’s economy, he had a positive attitude towards China’s accession to the WTO. In July 1995, the WTO accepted China as an observer, and China also worked hard to join the WTO as soon as possible. In 1999, Premier Zhu Rongji visited Washington and negotiated with the US side in person, but the bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Yugoslavia followed, and Sino-US relations became cold, and China encountered setbacks in the entry into the World War. A few months later, negotiations between the two sides started again, and finally signed a bilateral agreement on November 15, 1999, making breakthrough progress in the WTO negotiations and paving the way for the final success of the negotiations. In May 2000, the U.S. House of Representatives approved a permanent normal trade partnership agreement with China. In September 2000, the U.S. Senate approved the agreement. In December 2001, China officially joined the WTO.
Clinton once delivered a speech at Johns Hopkins University, explaining to Congress and the public the benefits of establishing a permanent normal trade relationship with China to the United States. He said that if the vote is against a permanent normal trade relationship with China, the United States will lose jobs because its competitors in Europe, Asia and elsewhere “will occupy the Chinese market we could have served.” “We must understand again the consequences of saying ‘no’: If we don’t sell our products to China, others will intervene, and over the next 20 years we will keep asking ourselves why we are in this great world.In the world, give the interests we negotiated to others. ”
Clinton is visionary. China’s accession to the WTO has made great progress. China’s total import of goods increased from more than US$240 billion in 2001 to US$1.9 trillion in 2017. During the same period, China’s import of service trade increased from US$39.3 billion to US$467.6 billion, with an average annual growth of 16.7%. In 2017, China’s economy contributed more than 30%. Former U.S. trade representative Balshevsky believes that China’s accession to the WTO is definitely a win-win situation. Not only China won, the United States won, Europe won, and developing countries won.
As for some people’s view that “the United States suffered a loss”, Li Kanru, an expert on China issues in the United States, said that this is “we The cause of its own problems. After China joined the WTO, the United States did not improve in many aspects and failed to improve its trade competitiveness. “For the United States, we cannot say that it loses, but we have not been able to seize the opportunity like China.”
Developing the “new economy” to enhance the competitiveness of the United States
During the “new economy” to enhance the competitiveness of the United States
During the “new economy” during the Clinton administration, full employment under zero inflation was basically achieved, and deeper changes came from the growth mechanism – technological innovation became the strongest driving force for economic development. Through technological innovation, new supply is used to stimulate new demand, and then new demand is used to promote sustained economic growth, which is called the “new economy”. According to the explanation of “Business Weekly”, the “new economy” is a global sustainable development based on the information revolution and the global market. href=”https://comicmov.com/”>Babaylan‘s economy.
In his 1995 State of the Union address, Clinton said that the most important task of the US government is to ensure that the American people succeed in the global economy. He believes that the way to deal with competition is not to engage in trade protectionism, but to improve the competitiveness of the United States itself. He abandoned the “Reagan Economics” that brought stagflation, proposed a package of economic rejuvenation plans that advocated change, and adopted a more practical approach, not only absorbing the tricks of Keynesianism and monetaryism, but also adopting the essence of the supply school and the rational expectation school. The new “Clinton Economics” replaced “Reagan Economics”, which opposed complete freedom and relaxation. The government in office also opposed excessive intervention.
In the first year of his administration, Clinton passed a fiscal budget plan in Congress with a narrow advantage, significantly increasing tax revenues of the richest class in the United States, reducing government spending, and significantly increasing tax rebates for the low-wage class. Subsequently, a series of policies to interfere with the economy were introduced, increasing government investment, increasing public services, creating jobs for middle and lower-class people, improving the international competitiveness of enterprises, increasing taxes for high-income families, raising minimum wages, reforming the medical insurance system, etc.
A expert concluded that the economic policies of the Clinton era included four aspects: First, fiscal policy, vigorously reducing fiscal deficits, implementing fiscal policies with both increase and decrease, and promoting economic transformation through increased investment. This greatly increasedIt has strengthened people’s confidence in the US economy and stimulated the prosperity of the investment market. The second is to implement a stable and continuous monetary policy, resolutely stop inflation, ensure the long-term growth of the economy under low inflation levels, and ensure the healthy development of the US economy. The third is trade policy, strengthen economic diplomacy, implement trade policies with the core of developing foreign markets and expand exports. Trade growth has greatly driven economic prosperity. Fourth, technical policies have shifted from indirectly promoting industrial technology development to direct development of industrial technology. During his tenure, he implemented strategies such as the National Information Infrastructure Action Plan and the Global E-commerce Framework, which effectively guided the growth of the information industry.
Clinton was in power for 8 years, and his most impressive political achievement was the economy. During his administration, the US economy continued to expand and prosper, setting a new record. Taking 1997 as an example, when the U.S. economic growth rate reached 3.9%, the unemployment rate dropped from 7.3% in 1992 to 4.7%, the lowest in 24 years, the inflation rate dropped from 2.9% in 1992 to 1.7%, and the fiscal deficit Komiks dropped from US$290 billion in 1992 to US$22 billion. The Dow Jones Index soared all the way, and by the end of 1998 it had exceeded the 9,000 point mark. The entire US economy shows a coexistence of low inflation and high growth, which is in sharp contrast to the stagflation in the 1980s. What is even more valuable is the sharp increase in profits of American companies. A large number of high-tech companies with far more benefits than traditional companies, such as Apple, Compaq, Dell, Intel, Microsoft, etc., stood out, and bioengineering technology is also booming, new drugs and treatment methods are constantly emerging, and major breakthroughs have been achieved in genetic research and human genetic research.
Clinton ensured the United States’ status as a technological and economic power by developing the “new economy”, and doubled the confidence of Americans. No wonder there are polls that Lincoln is the most popular president in the eyes of Americans, followed by Reagan, with Clinton third, and among the living presidents, Clinton is the most popular.
Presidential think tank Kissinger defended the opening of trade
Babaylan Reporter Ling Yun
In 1975, Kissinger sat in his office in Washington, DC.
In American politics, Henry Kissinger is known as the evergreen. When Kennedy was in power, he read Harvard professor Kissinger’s new book “The Necessity of Choice” and invited him to serve as a White House adviser. At that time, Kissinger was very bookish and his suggestions to Kennedy were mostly long-term academic opinions. By mid-1962, the two had “break up”. Kissinger said “both sides breathed a sigh of relief.” But within a few years, he truly entered the American political decision-making circle.
In 1969, Kissinger served as Nixon’s National Security Assistant, from 1973 to 197He served as Secretary of State for Nixon and Ford for 7 years and became a core figure in the US diplomatic circle. During the days of Reagan and Bush, he was appointed chairman of the bipartisan national committee on Central America and was a member of the think tanks such as the Foreign Intelligence Committee, the National Security Council and the Department of Defense Comprehensive Long-term Strategic Committee. During the era of Bush and Obama, he served as a member of the Defense Policy Committee for 16 consecutive years. Although the rotation of the two parties has caused Kissinger, a Republican, to have fluctuated his political influence, he has never been away from the vision of the US president. No matter who comes to power, he will ask Kissinger for advice.
Kissinger, who is familiar to the Chinese, is a “realistic” geopolitical master. He opened a new era of US-China relations with a dramatic secret diplomacy in the context of the Cold War, and has been called “the old friend of the Chinese people” for many years thereafter. In the eyes of Americans, Kissinger is a master of power struggle. He acts secretly and pursues everything.
In his White House career memoir, Kissinger proposed that “there is no peace without balance, and there is no justice without restraint.” He is a supporter of free trade and is often able to play a unique role at some critical moments due to his transcendent status in American politics.
Shaking the flag for the North American Free Trade Agreement
One day in April 1992, Kissinger and banker David Rockefeller hosted a seminar in Washington. Rockefeller called on business people attending the meeting to support the establishment of a free trade zone in the entire American continent within 8 years, and Kissinger said more specifically that the North American free trade agreement must be completed before the election vote that year.
As a Republican, Kissinger supported Bush Sr. Bush also believes that the North American Free Trade Agreement will bring tangible benefits to the United States and thus increase his votes. “I have instructed negotiators (of the United States) to speed up the work. I believe that a reasonable agreement can be reached before the election. Once a good agreement is ready, I will sign it.” Bush did sign the agreement, but he lost to Clinton in the general election.
However, Kissinger did not change his position in supporting free trade due to changes in political situations. On July 18, 1993, at a critical moment when Clinton was fighting for Congress to ratify the North American Free Trade Agreement, Kissinger wrote in the Los Angeles Times that the North American Free Trade Agreement connects the United States, Canada and Mexico. This free trade zone has a population of 370 million and a GDP of 6 trillion US dollars, representing “the most creative step in establishing a new world order after the end of the Cold War.”
At that time, the US public did not understand the North American Free Trade Agreement. In Kissinger’s words, about half of Americans have never heard of it at all, so Clinton wanted to “educate the public” to understand the significance of the NAFTA. Of course, Kissinger still interprets this significance from a geopolitical perspective and regards the prosperity of the Western Hemisphere through this agreement as the key to establishing a “new world order.” He said that after the end of the Cold War,As ideological challenges are eliminated, the traditional nationalist model appears, and the world after the Cold War has seen fierce confrontations similar to the tensions before World War I. In this case, the development of the Western Hemisphere is crucial to the global order.
Kissinger analyzed the international economic situation at that time and said that state-owned enterprises in various countries were privatizing, and the nationalist and protectionist economic management model was replaced by an export-oriented model that welcomed foreign investment and supported open trade system, and said that the new international order was “based on cooperation.” In this sense, the North American Free Trade Agreement “is not a traditional trade agreement, but a framework of the new international system.”
Kissinger is also worthy of being a senior presidential think tank. He said that as an elected U.S. leader, Clinton should put the NAFTA under a broader strategic framework and explain to Congress and the public why it is in the national interest of the United States and not let the NAFTA be portrayed by opponents as a mere solution to economic problems. The key to making a breakthrough is to get the joint support of the Democratic and Republican parties in the United States, and the North American Free Trade Agreement reflects this kind of bipartisan cooperation. The main part of this agreement was reached in the Bush era, while the supplementary agreement was completed in the Clinton era, which reflects bipartisan unity.
Jia Wenshan, now a distinguished professor at the School of Journalism at Renmin University of China and a tenured professor at Chapman University in the United States, told the Global People reporter that Kissinger is good at grasping the balance of political power and is good at grasping the opportunity. Clinton is a leader who is good at listening to experts and appointing elites. The adoption of the North American Free Trade Agreement is to a certain extent the result of such a kind of advocacy and listening.
Adhere to the positive role of US-China economic and trade relations
Neil Ferguson, the author of “The Biography of Kissinger”, once described Kissinger as “the builder of interpersonal networks.” He believes that Kissinger’s success is not only attributed to his extraordinary talent and tenacious will, but also to his outstanding talent in establishing and maintaining interpersonal networks. For many years, Kissinger has been following China, claiming that he is specializing in “knowing every generation of leaders in China” and has a strong interest in “Chinese thought and the Chinese people.” It is precisely based on this understanding that he attaches importance to the positive role of US-China economic and trade relations.
Kissinger, who is familiar with China, published the book “On China” at the age of 88, trying to understand China from a historical perspective, including understanding the long history of US-China economic and trade exchanges. In 1784, the “Queen of China” merchant ship returned to the United States, which had just obtained independence, with George Washington buying some Chinese porcelain brought back by the ship. Over the past 40 years since then, the United States’ trade volume with China has increased rapidly, ranking second behind the United Kingdom. During the War of Resistance Against Japan, the United States, as an anti-fascist alliance, provided a lot of material assistance to China. But by July 1971 when Kissinger came to Beijing on a Pakistani civil aviation plane, the United States and China were isolated from each other. Kissinger recalled to Chinese journalists that at that time, “China was considered our enemy, and we had no economic barriers.”, without personnel visits, the American public is hostile to China.
From Nixon’s visit to China to the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China in 1979, the breakthrough in political relations did not immediately bring about economic and trade heat. Kissinger said that in the two or three years after the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries, the trade volume of the United States was not as good as the trade volume between the United States and the small country Honduras. In the 1990s, the economic and trade relations between the two countries developed in a tortuous manner. In 1997, the Clinton administration prompted Congress to pass the unconditional extension of China’s most-favored-nation treatment and reached a bilateral agreement for China to join the WTO in 1999. Since then, the trade volume between the United States and China has increased by a geometric multiple, reaching US$583.697 billion by 2017.
Opening has brought prosperity to China, and Kissinger is optimistic about this. As early as 1982, he went to ChinaBabaylan country conducts private visits, with href=”https://comicmov.com/”>BabaylanDeng Xiaoping exchanged on China’s reform and opening up. Kissinger recalled that Deng Xiaoping called on learning from Western countries, introducing advanced technology, and encouraging the dispatch of international students. These new ideas impressed him. Later, Kissinger praised Deng Xiaoping as “one of the greatest figures of the 20th century.” In 1995, Kissinger led a delegation to visit China. At that time, China’s economy grew rapidly and its per capita income was three times that of 1978. Kissinger believes that China is accelerating its integration into the international community. In 1997, the Asian financial crisis occurred, and China became a “bastion of world economic growth and social stability.” After the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008, China played an important role in responding to the crisis. Kissinger believes that China is accelerating its integration into the international community. In 1997, the Asian financial crisis occurred, and China became a “bastion of world economic growth and social stability.” After the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008, China played an important role in responding to the crisis. Kissinger believes that , China’s economic growth has prevented the decline of the global economy.
The US’s choice affects the world
In 2014, Kissinger invited Fu Ying, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National People’s Congress of China, and his party for lunch in New York, and held a dialogue on the world order and Sino-US relations. At that time, Kissinger said that what he was most worried about and thought about the most was the changes in the world order. He said that since the 19th century, the center of the world order is in Europe and the United States, and the center of the 21st century is the Asia-Pacific. The biggest variable in Asia is China’s continued growth in the next 20 years.
Kissinger talked about the issue of US-China trade frictions a few years ago. His views were pragmatic at the time, and it is not out of date until now. He said that trade frictions between countries are inevitable, and many countries have experienced Babaylan. China’s trade surplus with the United States will continue, but “based on my understanding of China’s economic policies, China also hopes that over time, the economy will rely more on consumption rather than exports.”
It can be seen that Kissinger is optimistic about China’s economic prospects. He regards China, the United States, India and Brazil as new engines of the future global economy. HeIt is said that the foundation of the U.S. economy is undergoing a fundamental transformation from a pure importer of energy to a surplus of energy, which will have a huge impact on the economic situation. As gasoline becomes cheaper, alleviating the high cost troubles of U.S. manufacturing, the United States also has the potential to become a producer of low-cost industrial products, “this will be achieved within decades.”
At such a critical moment, the choice of the American leader is very important. Kissinger once said: “China’s choice will influence and change the world. The United States must consider how much time and space there is to maintain the existing order, and need to conceive a future world order.” In fact, the United States’ choice will also affect the world. From historical experience, whenever the American leader chooses an open economic policy to the outside world and actively solves the upgrading of industries internally, the US economy becomes stronger and society becomes richer. On the contrary, when American leaders regard international trade as a zero-sum game, embracing tariff barriers in a short-sighted manner, the economic contraction and depression are always accompanied by.
Kissinger has emphasized more than once that US-China cooperation is crucial to world peace and development. Both sides should regard friendship and cooperation as common goals and make unremitting efforts to this end. As a 15-year-old German Jew who immigrated to the United States, served in the U.S. Army during World War II, and had taken charge of American diplomacy, his loyalty to American interests is beyond doubt. Because of this, his emphasis on US-China cooperation is more worth listening to. This is a good thing for China and even more good for the United States.